NSE NIFTY REVIEW AND FORECAST(26/2/2013)

Technicals:-

Yesterday Nifty opened and ended in green, but moved an intraday range of 52 points. Since Nifty opened at 5871, no Long trade was possible as it was neither around 5850 nor it moved above 5880. In between Nifty did come back at 5850 levels, where trade with tight stop loss would have hit the stop as Nifty slid below 5846 once again duuring the day.

Low volume added to the volatility. Fii figures are shrinking once again.

Further look at Technical’s (Candle Stick Chart), shows present range between 5815-6048, and below this range there is another range of 5543-5815. Hence till 5815 levels, Nifty can afford to fall but the way Nifty has been testing lower levels last few sessions, may be sign of future to come. If tomorrows rail way budget play it safe and remain silent on fare & freight hikes, we may see high pressure downwards. But considering Budget around the corner going short won’t be advisable even now.

In the short-term Nifty’s resistance points are at 5880, 5900, 5930, 5950 and 6000. Support levels are at immediate 5846 levels and 5820 levels.

In the medium-term ( Candle Chart) suggests range between 5820-6116 , And like short-term , will have to wait for 5980 levels to be taken out , if nifty needs to test 6100 levels in the medium-term.

Medium-term immediate resistance is at 5880 and 5910 and support at 5847, 5820 levels.

MACD & RSI is showing a reversal bias from the present level. Trend line (Downward) is in the verge of being crossed upwads and Nifty needs to break convincingly above 5854 levels ,means with high volumes.

Hence till budget our range seems to be between 5820-5970 levels.

Fundamentals:-

Domestic: -

Railway Budget will give us some direction to the Budget; hence markets will be watching Railway Budget closely.

Global:-

Italy elections are pointing to Instability in the region, Euro concerns have ensure Global markets in US, Asia takes a hit today and run red.

SGX Nifty is trailing by .33%. How Europe reacts will have an impact today evening.

Call for the day:-

Market likely to open in Red or flat. Wait till Railway budget, if fares & freight are increased, market is likely to cheer the budget and that will be visible if market moves above 5910 levels. Buying at these levels with target of 5970 will be an opportunity in the next 2 days.

Reaction to Italy elections in Europe is important factor to be watched out; hence any decision to buy should be taken post opening of European markets.

If markets trade downwards, going short is not advised as no major break down may happen before budget is presented and present oversold positions in the short-term too supports market from major slide.

EOD Position:-

Date Prev-Day Close Open High Low Close
26/2/2013 5855 5838 5839 5761 5761
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