Nifty week ahead (25/11/13 to 29/11/13)

• Last week snap shot of Nifty

Nifty	Open	High	Low	Close	Volume	FII-Net	Swing	Diff
Immediate-Week	6111	6212	5973	5995	292.42	2190	239	-116
Previous-Week	6110	6142	5972	6056	175.88	1326	170	-54

• Key events (India):-

1. F&O expiry
2. GDP Numbers
3. FII Inflows and Rupee movement

 

• Key events (Global-US):-

1. No major event lined up this week globally. US markets will be shut on Thursday due Thanksgiving Holiday.
2. US – Iran Nuke deal developments and impact

• Technical assumptions:-

Nifty’s broader range is between 5773-6250 levels now. Nifty has strong support at 5910-34 levels and has strong resistance at 6119-47.

Considering no major action points this week Nifty may not break the resistance levels of 6119-47 and might end up between 5900-6100 levels. But Nifty may have a robust start on the back of US-Iran nuke deal.

Fibonacci levels:-

Fibonacci levels	Nifty Levels
23.60%	4958
38.20%	5222
50.00%	5435
61.80%	5648
76.40%	5912
100%	6339
138.20%	7030
161.80%	7456
261.80%	9264
423.60%	12190

Support and resistance levels for Nifty:-

S&R	No	Levels	Strength
Support	1	5973-79	2
Support	2	5910-5934	3
Support	3	5796-24	3
Support	4	5635-48	3
Support	5	5435	1
Resistance	1	6030	1
Resistance	2	6119-47	5
Resistance	3	6227-48	3
Resistance	4	6349-62	4

 

Broader Range:-

		Low	High
Broader Range		5773	6250

 

Basic trading ideas:-

• Be aware of the news around the globe and watch market charts daily before placing trade.
• For swing trades (One or two days) buy/sell around 20 points from support or resistance and keep a stop 20 points and earning target of 40 points.
• Use Support /Resistance levels to make buying and selling decisions (Trade).
• Buy when Nifty reverses from strong support levels.
• Buy when Nifty breaks a strong resistance and moves above.
• Sell when Nifty is near to a strong resistance levels.
• Sell when Nifty breaks a strong support and moves below.
• Risk: Reward ratio should be minimum 1:2.
• Stop loss should be not more than 2% of the total trading capital.

(This blog is written purely on my understanding of NSE-Nifty 50 stock market and views expressed are purely personal and not meant for any advisory services).

Nifty week ahead (18/11/13 to 22/11/13)

• Last week snap shot of Nifty

Nifty	Open	High	Low	Close	Volume	FII-Net	Swing	Diff
Immediate-Week	6110	6142	5972	6056	175.88	1952	170	-54
Previous-Week	6332	6342	6121	6141	294.95	1326	221	-191

• Key events (India):-

FII numbers and rupee movements will once again decide the movements of Indian markets.

• Key events (Global-US):-

Wednesday minutes of Fed meeting held on October 29-30 will be released, which will be analysed for knowing the Fed’s expected tapering timing.

• Technical assumptions:-

Technically Nifty continues to be between Fibonacci levels of 76.40% i.e. 5912 and 100% i.e.6339 levels.

On the upside first task for Nifty will be break 6136-44 levels, from where Nifty may scale up to6249-58 levels if rupee and FII supports markets.

On the downside if Nifty breaks the strong support levels of 5949-76 levels, it may see Nifty coming down to 5800 levels.

Candle stick for the week points to more buyers’ action to sellers and week should start positively for Nifty.

Fibonacci Levels between 4531 (Trough) and 6339 (Peak)

Fibonacci levels	Nifty Levels
23.60%	4958
38.20%	5222
50.00%	5435
61.80%	5648
76.40%	5912
100%	6339
138.20%	7030
161.80%	7456
261.80%	9264
423.60%	12190

Support and resistance levels for Nifty:-

S&R	No	Levels	Strength
Support	1	6035	1
Support	2	5949-76	3
Support	3	5912	1
Support	4	5873	1
Support	5	5815	1
Resistance	1	6095	1
Resistance	2	6136-44	2
Resistance	3	6218	1
Resistance	4	6249-58	2
Resistance	5	6339-6350	4

 

Broader Range:-

		Low	High
Broader Range		5834	6311

 

Basic trading ideas:-

• Be aware of the news around the globe and watch market charts daily before placing trade.
• For swing trades (One or two days) buy/sell around 20 points from support or resistance and keep a stop 20 points and earning target of 40 points.
• Use Support /Resistance levels to make buying and selling decisions (Trade).
• Buy when Nifty reverses from strong support levels.
• Buy when Nifty breaks a strong resistance and moves above.
• Sell when Nifty is near to a strong resistance levels.
• Sell when Nifty breaks a strong support and moves below.
• Risk: Reward ratio should be minimum 1:2.
• Stop loss should be not more than 2% of the total trading capital.

(This blog is written purely on my understanding of NSE-Nifty 50 stock market and views expressed are purely personal and not meant for any advisory services).

Nifty week ahead (11/11/13 to 15/11/13)

 

• Last week snap shot of Nifty

Nifty	Open	High	Low	Close	Volume	FII-Net	Swing	Diff
Immediate-Week	6332	6342	6121	6141	294.95	1326	221	-191
Previous-Week	6155	6334	6079	6307	354	4818	255	152

• Key events (India):-

Rupee movements

FII inflows

Economic data like Industrial output data for September, trade deficit numbers, CPI, WPI for October

• Key events (Global-US):-

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart is expected to speak on the economic outlook on Tuesday.

Hearing on Thursday before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on the nomination of Fed Vice Chair Yellen to replace Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

• Technical assumptions:-

Last week nifty was in over sold territory and has cooled off a bit , still candle stick shows Nifty has made higher high and lower low compared to previous week.

Concern is on the FII numbers and weakness in the rupee coupled with a strong US GDP and payroll data last week, further initiating the Fed tapering discussion in Dec/Jan period to Mar 14 period.

This week CPI/WPI data in India will pave way to further discussion on RBI rate hike/cut and Trade deficit numbers too will indicate whether FM’s prediction of a trade deficit coming below 60bn holds good or not.

This week can go either way according to the news flow domestically as well as globally.

Technically Nifty is once again between Fibonacci levels of 76.40% i.e. 5912 and 100% i.e.6339 levels.

But unless there is a strong fundamental trigger , Nifty breaking the 100% level looks once again doubtful and in the immediate term Nifty may even test the lower levels if Nifty is unable to hold 6094-96 levels.

On the upside Nifty will have to break 6217-33 levels first to even attempt at the 6345-64 levels.

Fibonacci Levels between 4531 (Trough) and 6339 (Peak)

Fibonacci levels	Nifty Levels
23.60%	4958
38.20%	5222
50.00%	5435
61.80%	5648
76.40%	5912
100%	6339
138.20%	7030
161.80%	7456
261.80%	9264
423.60%	12190

Support and resistance levels for Nifty:-

S&R	No	Levels	Strength
Support	1	6112	2
Support	2	6094-96	3
Support	3	6035	1
Support	4	5992	1
Support	5	5949-54	2
Resistance	1	6143-49	2
Resistance	2	6185	1
Resistance	3	6217-33	3
Resistance	4	6345-64	3

Broader Range:-

		Low	High
Broader Range		5919	6396

Basic trading ideas:-

• Be aware of the news around the globe and watch market charts daily before placing trade.
• For swing trades (One or two days) buy/sell around 20 points from support or resistance and keep a stop 20 points and earning target of 40 points.
• Use Support /Resistance levels to make buying and selling decisions (Trade).
• Buy when Nifty reverses from strong support levels.
• Buy when Nifty breaks a strong resistance and moves above.
• Sell when Nifty is near to a strong resistance levels.
• Sell when Nifty breaks a strong support and moves below.
• Risk: Reward ratio should be minimum 1:2.
• Stop loss should be not more than 2% of the total trading capital.

(This blog is written purely on my understanding of NSE-Nifty 50 stock market and views expressed are purely personal and not meant for any advisory services).