Nifty week ahead (09/12/13 to 13/12/13)

• Last week snap shot of Nifty

Nifty	Open	High	Low	Close	Volume	FII-Net	Swing	Diff
Immediate-Week	6171	6300	6150	6260	328.78	3375	150	89
Previous-Week	6036	6183	6030	6176	318.01	1251	153	140

• Key events (India):-

1. Election results and Impact
2. FII action and rupee movement
3. November Trade data (Tuesday)
4. CPI data

• Key events (Global-US):-

1. 13^th December dead line on US budget discussions
2. Expectations on FOMC meeting on Dec 17^th and 18th

• Technical assumptions:-

Technically Nifty looks all set to test record highs this week in the beginning, but whether that will be sustained is doubtful as RSI indicator suggests Nifty moving in to over sold territory and even MACD weekly suggests negative divergence , both points to non sustenance of upward momentum beyond first few days of the week.

Further momentum will depend on Fed related news and final outcome of state elections including seats and formation of government.

Initially 6259 levels will be crucial for Nifty to hold to register highs in the first few days and further it should be between 6119-6344 levels. Worst for Nifty won’t be below 6094 levels and highs can be even high as 6500.

Fibonacci levels:-

Fibonacci levels	Nifty Levels
23.60%	4958
38.20%	5222
50.00%	5435
61.80%	5648
76.40%	5912
100%	6339
138.20%	7030
161.80%	7456
261.80%	9264
423.60%	12190

Support and resistance levels for Nifty:-

S&R	No	Levels	Strength
Support	1	6232-55	2
Support	2	6214	1
Support	3	6119-48	3
Support	4	6094-97	2
Resistance	1	6339-44	4

Broader Range:-

		Low	High
Broader Range		6038	6515

Basic trading ideas:-

• Be aware of the news around the globe and watch market charts daily before placing trade.
• For swing trades (One or two days) buy/sell around 20 points from support or resistance and keep a stop 20 points and earning target of 40 points.
• Use Support /Resistance levels to make buying and selling decisions (Trade).
• Buy when Nifty reverses from strong support levels.
• Buy when Nifty breaks a strong resistance and moves above.
• Sell when Nifty is near to a strong resistance levels.
• Sell when Nifty breaks a strong support and moves below.
• Risk: Reward ratio should be minimum 1:2.
• Stop loss should be not more than 2% of the total trading capital.

(This blog is written purely on my understanding of NSE-Nifty 50 stock market and views expressed are purely personal and not meant for any advisory services).

Nifty week ahead (02/12/13 to 06/12/13)

• Last week snap shot of Nifty

Nifty	Open	High	Low	Close	Volume	FII-Net	Swing	Diff
Immediate-Week	6036	6183	6030	6176	318.01	1298	153	140
Previous-Week	6111	6212	5973	5995	292.42	2190	239	116

• Key events (India):-

1. Election related news
2. FII action and rupee movement
3. Economic numbers from US

 

• Key events (Global-US):-

1. Employment numbers and impact on Fed bond tapering.
2. Vice President Joe Biden’s trip to Asia and the Air space stand-off between China and Japan.
3. ISM data on US Manufacturing and Services.

• Technical assumptions:-

Nifty’s broader range is between 5954-6431 levels now. Nifty has strong support at 6094-27 levels and has strong resistance at 6214-55.

Considering the major trigger expected by markets being the State election result coming on December 8^th, Nifty may not break the strong support or resistance levels this week. But Global cues and FII action may play a crucial role if these levels mentioned above need to be broken either way.

Fibonacci levels:-

Fibonacci levels	Nifty Levels
23.60%	4958
38.20%	5222
50.00%	5435
61.80%	5648
76.40%	5912
100%	6339
138.20%	7030
161.80%	7456
261.80%	9264
423.60%	12190

Support and resistance levels for Nifty:-

S&R	No	Levels	Strength
Support	1	6143-44	2
Support	2	6094-27	5
Support	3	5948-74	3
Resistance	1	6190	1
Resistance	2	6214-55	5
Resistance	3	6339-47	4

 

Broader Range:-

		Low	High
Broader Range		5954	6431

 

Basic trading ideas:-

• Be aware of the news around the globe and watch market charts daily before placing trade.
• For swing trades (One or two days) buy/sell around 20 points from support or resistance and keep a stop 20 points and earning target of 40 points.
• Use Support /Resistance levels to make buying and selling decisions (Trade).
• Buy when Nifty reverses from strong support levels.
• Buy when Nifty breaks a strong resistance and moves above.
• Sell when Nifty is near to a strong resistance levels.
• Sell when Nifty breaks a strong support and moves below.
• Risk: Reward ratio should be minimum 1:2.
• Stop loss should be not more than 2% of the total trading capital.

(This blog is written purely on my understanding of NSE-Nifty 50 stock market and views expressed are purely personal and not meant for any advisory services).

Nifty week ahead (11/11/13 to 15/11/13)

 

• Last week snap shot of Nifty

Nifty	Open	High	Low	Close	Volume	FII-Net	Swing	Diff
Immediate-Week	6332	6342	6121	6141	294.95	1326	221	-191
Previous-Week	6155	6334	6079	6307	354	4818	255	152

• Key events (India):-

Rupee movements

FII inflows

Economic data like Industrial output data for September, trade deficit numbers, CPI, WPI for October

• Key events (Global-US):-

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart is expected to speak on the economic outlook on Tuesday.

Hearing on Thursday before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on the nomination of Fed Vice Chair Yellen to replace Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

• Technical assumptions:-

Last week nifty was in over sold territory and has cooled off a bit , still candle stick shows Nifty has made higher high and lower low compared to previous week.

Concern is on the FII numbers and weakness in the rupee coupled with a strong US GDP and payroll data last week, further initiating the Fed tapering discussion in Dec/Jan period to Mar 14 period.

This week CPI/WPI data in India will pave way to further discussion on RBI rate hike/cut and Trade deficit numbers too will indicate whether FM’s prediction of a trade deficit coming below 60bn holds good or not.

This week can go either way according to the news flow domestically as well as globally.

Technically Nifty is once again between Fibonacci levels of 76.40% i.e. 5912 and 100% i.e.6339 levels.

But unless there is a strong fundamental trigger , Nifty breaking the 100% level looks once again doubtful and in the immediate term Nifty may even test the lower levels if Nifty is unable to hold 6094-96 levels.

On the upside Nifty will have to break 6217-33 levels first to even attempt at the 6345-64 levels.

Fibonacci Levels between 4531 (Trough) and 6339 (Peak)

Fibonacci levels	Nifty Levels
23.60%	4958
38.20%	5222
50.00%	5435
61.80%	5648
76.40%	5912
100%	6339
138.20%	7030
161.80%	7456
261.80%	9264
423.60%	12190

Support and resistance levels for Nifty:-

S&R	No	Levels	Strength
Support	1	6112	2
Support	2	6094-96	3
Support	3	6035	1
Support	4	5992	1
Support	5	5949-54	2
Resistance	1	6143-49	2
Resistance	2	6185	1
Resistance	3	6217-33	3
Resistance	4	6345-64	3

Broader Range:-

		Low	High
Broader Range		5919	6396

Basic trading ideas:-

• Be aware of the news around the globe and watch market charts daily before placing trade.
• For swing trades (One or two days) buy/sell around 20 points from support or resistance and keep a stop 20 points and earning target of 40 points.
• Use Support /Resistance levels to make buying and selling decisions (Trade).
• Buy when Nifty reverses from strong support levels.
• Buy when Nifty breaks a strong resistance and moves above.
• Sell when Nifty is near to a strong resistance levels.
• Sell when Nifty breaks a strong support and moves below.
• Risk: Reward ratio should be minimum 1:2.
• Stop loss should be not more than 2% of the total trading capital.

(This blog is written purely on my understanding of NSE-Nifty 50 stock market and views expressed are purely personal and not meant for any advisory services).