Previous day’s call & Actual positions:-
Call for the day:-
Nifty should open in green today. Considering the number of resistances, Nifty needs to take out, starting from 5960, 5973, 6002, 6018, before hitting a major resistance 6060, Nifty needs to make a good support at present levels.
Considering all the buildup is towards RBI Policy, it will be important to watch today’s IIP data as well as Thursday’s inflation data.
Suggestion to go long will be at 6020 levels, with a target of 6060 levels, keeping stop at 6000. Going short is not advised.
EOD Position:-
| Date | Prev-Day Close | Open | High | Low | Close |
| 12/3/2013 | 5942 | 5945 | 5952 | 5894 | 5914 |
Review of Previous day:-
Nifty had a volatile session, where Nifty remained mainly in two zones; 5935-5952 and 5894-5910.
Technical Analysis:-
Volumes:-
Volumes have come down, along with slight drop in Nifty. This suggests unwillingness to move down easily.
FII Inflow:-FII continues to be positive, but net values are down compared to previous day.
Pivot Point (Major support): 5920
Pivot Resistance & Support
|
Levels |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
Pivot Resistance |
5946 |
5978 |
6004 |
|
Pivot Support |
5888 |
5862 |
5830 |
Line & Candle Stick chart interpretation:-
Short-term:-
In the short-term first level of support is 5887, followed with 5862 and 5830. And resistance comes at 5946, 5978 and 6004.
Broadly 5880-5972 is the range Nifty will follow, before RBI Policy, provided no major surprises (Negative) with respect to WPI data.
RSI is bending down suggesting negative bias, MACD is still holding in green. Tomorrow’s session is important for Nifty, where Nifty should not fall down from here. Nifty needs to remain within the 5888-5945 range tomorrow, so that post Inflation data on Thursday, Nifty will take some direction.
Medium-term:-
Nifty has headed down to the range between 5836 – 5948, this may suggest Nifty can move down till 5836 levels before the RBI policy. Breaking down 5836 levels will mean back to 5627-5836 levels.
RSI is suggesting downward bias, MACD is showing upward trend. Means Nifty is indecisive.
Fundamental Analysis:-
Domestic Factors:-
IIP (Factory Output) was higher than the 1.2 percent estimated bythe street. However, consumer price index-based (CPI) inflation for February rose to 10.9 percent, the third successive month when it has been above the psychological mark.
CPI is not the only factor which might prompt the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to take any step on the rate cut. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is a material factor. It will be announced on Thursday and market would now be closely watching that.
Global Factors:-
US:-
S&P 500 ended lower on Tuesday, breaking a seven-session string of increases as investors pulled back from technology and financial shares, but the Dow eked out a gain for an eighth straight day.
The Dow registered yet another record high close, after also hitting a lifetime intraday high, while the S&P 500 remains within reach of its all-time closing high of 1,565.15, set on October 9, 2007.
The market’s rally in recent months has driven the Dow up 10.3 percent for the year and lifted the S&P 500 by 8.9 percent for 2013 so far. Signs of improvement in the economy and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing have helped to propel the advance.
Europe:-
In Europe, FTSE and CAC closed in green and DAX closed down .23%. News from Italy is the key thing to watch in Europe in this week.
Asian markets & SGX Nifty today:-
Asian markets fell for a second day amid concern shares rose too fast in a three-week rally that drove the regional benchmark index to a 19-month high.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3 percent to 135.72 as of 11:34 a.m. Asia market rally has been fuelled by the signs of recovery in the economies of U.S. and China and amid speculation of BOJ stimulus to step up the world’s third-largest economy.
SGX Nifty is down with .48%.
Call for the day:-
Nifty should be either flat or open in RED following the global ques.
Technically, Nifty is in an indecisive zone, where if Nifty breaks above 5972 short-term prospect will turn positive and if remain within the range as well as it breaks below 5880, Nifty view remains negative and indecisive.
Call for the day will be to wait and watch. Not a good day to trade, as shorting may be risky as major data (WPI) is awaited tomorrow, followed with major news to be unfolded on March 15th in Italy.
EOD Position:-
| Date | Prev-Day Close | Open | High | Low | Close |
|
13/3/2013 |
5914 |
5885 |
5894 |
5842 |
5851 |
Vijay Shivram Menon 