Previous day’s call & Actual positions:-
Call for the day:-
Nifty should be either flat or open in RED following the global ques.
Technically, Nifty is in an indecisive zone, where if Nifty breaks above 5972 short-term prospect will turn positive and if remain within the range as well as it breaks below 5880, Nifty view remains negative and indecisive.
Call for the day will be to wait and watch. Not a good day to trade, as shorting may be risky as major data (WPI) is awaited tomorrow, followed with major news to be unfolded on March 15th in Italy.
EOD Position:-
| Date | Prev-Day Close | Open | High | Low | Close |
|
13/3/2013 |
5914 |
5885 |
5894 |
5842 |
5851 |
Review of Previous day:-
Nifty had witnessed , heavy proft booking yesterday, partly due to speculation on rates and weak global sentiments.
Technical Analysis:-
Volumes & FII Inflow:- Volumes movement didn’t have any impact in the last few trading sessions, hence slight increase on volumes , or decreasing FII net inflows doesn’t seems to suggest much.
Pivot Point (Major support): 5862
Pivot Resistance & Support
|
Levels |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
Pivot Resistance |
5883 |
5914 |
5935 |
|
Pivot Support |
5831 |
5810 |
5779 |
Line & Candle Stick chart interpretation:-
Short-term:-
In the short-term, strong support is visible at 5846 levels, if unable to hold may go down till 5796 and 5756 levels.
On the up side 5910 is the first level of major resistance, followed with 5935and 5956.
Both RSI and MACD, suggests negative bias, technically.
Medium-term:-
Medium term range is between 5950-5719, Thus there is still about 130 points head room below for Nifty to move, if profit booking persists.
Both RSI and MACD confirm negative bias.
Fundamental Analysis:-
Domestic Factors:-
The Indian markets closed today’s trade on a negative note on back of profit booking and also due to unsupportive cues from the global markets. The key benchmark indices were in negative trend from start to end as there were no chances to move in the green zone. Persistent selling pressure in majority of the sectors and profit booking weighed on the market sentiments.
NSE index fell 1.06%. The key benchmark indices headed towards the third day of decline on Wednesday (March 13, 2013) as investors were keenly awaiting the outcome of monthly inflation numbers on Thursday (March 14, 2013) that will set the tone for the central bank’s policy meeting by this month on March 19.
Adding further, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today (March 13, 2013) said in the Lok Sabha that the economy will return back to high growth trajectory within the next 2-3 years. He also said that the GDP has slowed down in the last couple of years owing to several domestic as well as international factors.
View: – WPI data, if comes as expected, Nifty will arrest the down slide and move upwards, but if data surprises negatively, markets will go down further.
Global Factors:-
US:-
Stocks edged up on Wednesday, with the Dow rising for the ninth straight session to another record, buoyed by surprisingly strong retail sales that suggested the economy is gaining momentum.
The DJIA’s nine-day winning streak is the longest consecutive run since November 1996.
But trading volume was light. Moves have been muted in recent days as investors consolidate positions after a strong run-up in the first three months of the year. Still, weakness in stocks has been met with buying, which helped propel the market’s advance.
The broader S&P 500 is within striking distance of its all-time closing high of 1,565.15 and about 1 percent away from all-time intraday high of 1,576.09 – both set in 2007.
View: – There will be a correction any time from now, as US markets has been running without any rest for more than a week now.
Europe:-
European shares edged lower hit by a string of weak earnings reports as investors wait to see if economic data supports the rally that has taken many stock indexes up to multi-year highs.
A subdued showing on Wall Street overnight – where the DJIA Industrial Average slipped off a record high to close flat after seven straight sessions of gains – and a sell-off in Tokyo added to the cautious mood in Europe.
The pan-European FTS Euro first 300 index was down 0.1 percent at 1,193.35 points in early trading, edging away from a 4-1/2 year peak of 1,197.73 points set at the end of last week.
London’s FTSE 100, Paris’s CAC-40 and Frankfurt’s DAX opened down as much as 0.6 percent but managed to close flat with .06 % gain.
View: – Italian government and new bond offer, remains major focus for the market till weekend.
Asian markets & SGX Nifty today:-
Asia stock markets lost ground Wednesday, with Shanghai stocks trading sharply lower for a second day, as investors assessed whether the economic outlook supported further gains.
Investors will watch bond sales from highly-indebted euro zone countries to gauge the degree of anxiety. Italy will offer three-year and 15-year bonds at an auction later on Wednesday, while Spain plans to sell bonds due 2029, 2040 and 2041 at a special, off-calendar auction on Thursday.
Today, barring Nikkei and Shanghai composite, all other indices are trading in red.
SGX Nifty is trading down with .08 %.
View: – Global rally seems to have reached a point of overbought territory, turning investors to profit booking, Asian markets too seems to follow global trends.
Call for the day:-
Following cues from Asian peers, Nifty should be either flat or down at the opening.
WPI data will dictate movement either ways, at least for tomorrow and till March 19th policy. Since market is completely focused on Inflation related news, it is better to see the news off the table before entering in to any trade.
But there are some possibilities, which can be taped according to the risk appetite.
If WPI surprises negatively, shorts can be initiated at 5790 with targets of 5760 levels with stop at 5805 levels.
If WPI is numbers meets street expectations, and Nifty takes out 5880 levels , then long can be initiated at 5895 levels for a target of 5940 levels , with stop at 5880 levels.
EOD Position:-
|
Date |
Prev-Day Close |
Open |
High |
Low |
Close |
|
14/3/2013 |
5851 |
5846 |
5920 |
5792 |
5909 |
Review of Previous day:-
Market witnessed a high swing day , where it moved between 5792-5920.
Vijay Shivram Menon 